Drafting Decisions and the Salary Cap 2015: Part II

In the first part of our draft series I looked at the expected contribution of a draft pick in terms of veteran dollars to determine where underpricing exists the most and to propose a new trade chart. In this part I want to expand on the values of the draft picks and different ways to really use a trade chart, which probably should not be a static chart as I set forth in Part 1.

When we look at the draft in the manner I did before we are completely removing the element of scouting or any other form of analysis of the draft class from the equation. When we want to make the best decisions we want the best information possible. How often do we hear things like “this is a good draft class” or there is “good value in round two, but not so much in round 1”.  As the draft draws closer and closer we should be able to use this information to modify the draft charts accordingly.

You’ll recall that in the last piece I broke down the players into quartiles to come up with our average expectation. The average expectation should always be used in a blind trade such as trading a 2015 draft pick for a 2016 one or a trade before all players have declared. But by draft day we should be able to better project on a player, general round by round quality, or overall draft quality. A team looking to trade up or down should accordingly move within the quartile values to determine their own trade values.

I’d propose, in addition to the average range discussed in part 1, looking at the draft in five different ways:

  1. The top 25%- This is where we expect a “boom” draft where we are going to hit on our top line expectations. Clearly this is very risky but I think would be used on a case by case basis for certain players rather than rounds.
  2. The top 50% blend- We agree that the draft is filled with good prospects but we don’t have a strong feeling on players being great, but we are pretty sure they won’t fall into the bottom rankings
  3. The top 75% blend- We don’t think the players will be total flops, but the draft looks to be weaker overall. Odds are some guys will hit but we want to be cautiously optimistic about the chances.
  4. The mid 50% blend- We are confident there are no superstars in the draft but equally confident there are limited amounts of useless players
  5. The Bottom 50%- This is a bad draft and we don’t see much upside overall in the crop of players.

Here is how these tiers all look when graphed:

NFL Draft values

You can see from the graph how much benefit there is when you do hit in those top quartile ranges. It is why there should be extreme value placed on a pick when you fully believe that the player is going to be dominant (i.e. Andrew Luck) and the next options have more question marks. Regardless the draft is still almost completely underpriced with the exception of landing a below average draft pick. This is probably one of the reasons why teams like the Ravens do value those comp picks so much since there is almost always a benefit over the veteran alternative as free agency can also prove to be quite a risk when teams overbid on players.

So how do we use this in a trade?  First of all we need to move away from a point based system and move into a value based system.  The value we will use is the projected value of the pick on the veteran pay scale minus the minimum salary benefit (essentially a cost over average). Now we can easily mix and match player valuations dynamically and trade such that the values over average more or less balance out.

Let’s go back to the RGIII trade as example 1. In this trade Washington was hot to move up to number 2. From the Rams perspective they immediately need to demand value for a player who projected in the top 25% for the draft position. It doesn’t matter if the Rams thought RGIII was that good, all that matters is what Washington thought. To make the trade that means Washington needs to provide about $11.27 million in value. To increase their haul the Rams will argue that outside the top 2 this is an average or below average draft.

Of course we know Washington caved on the deal—they traded three 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder for RGIII—but how bad was it? From Washington’s perspective to be even close to equal value on the deal they had to assume that they were going to be in the Super Bowl the next two seasons if the 2nd round was considered average risk. To come out ahead they needed to be at least a high ranking playoff team in 2012 and 2013 and have to internally project the 2012 second round to be terrible.

If the Rams made the assumption that the future first rounders will be pick 16 (relatively fair assumptions) and that the 2012 draft was indeed average they gained $1.6M in value. If they thought that the 2012 first rounder was above average (call it top 50%) they gained nearly $4 million in value. If they didn’t think RGIII was a top 25% guy they walked away with $7 million. The bottom line is that they slaughtered Washington in the trade.

Now the following season the Raiders traded down with Miami, who ended up picking Dion Jordan with the third overall pick in the draft. Oakland was somewhat criticized for the trade because they only picked up an additional second round pick, which was a far cry from the haul the Rams received for RGIII, picked just one spot earlier the year before, and the traditional draft trade chart said they fell way short of compensation. The criticism would be fair if the expectation was that the 3rd pick was an elite talent and pick 12 was not (they would have lost nearly $5 million in value), but in general the 2013 draft was considered poor.

Oakland wasn’t really coming from a position of power as, unlike the Rams, they were likely the team looking to move down so they couldn’t do the sell job the Rams could do. As long as Oakland saw the 12 and 3 of being similar in chance of being a decent player then they actually did come out ahead in the trade. Miami clearly saw a better player at 3 than 12. If they view 12 as average and 3 in the top 50% or 75% of all picks then they viewed themselves coming out ahead, especially when we consider how much more underpriced (the cost of the draft pick versus the expected return) the Raiders picks were than the 3rd overall pick that Miami received.  Unlike the Washington deal this was a win-win (as the players turned out maybe a lose-lose was more accurate) and probably aided by who was initiating or pushing the trade talks.

If we are discussing player for pick trades, which are rarer than pure draft pick trades, there is more complexity because of the differences in real cost. When we discuss Philip Rivers for the number 2 pick, it’s a given that the team acquiring Rivers is getting a high level player. The Chargers may believe they are getting one in Mariota but odds are he won’t be as good as Rivers. If we look at this purely on value, Mariota would max out as being worth $11.3 million unless a team is willing to bet he’s a once in a generation type of talent. Rivers, on the other hand, at worst should bring the value of a $15 million player based on his AV. That would indicate that the Chargers need to get more in return, which won’t happen in practice.

The big difference here is the contractual cost. Mariota will potentially give the Chargers $6.6 million per year in added cap space to spend when we compare his high end projected veteran value (around $11.9M) to his actual salary (about $5.3M). So from the Titans point of view the Chargers are getting Mariota plus an added $6 million or so to spend each year.  That brings the Chargers value in the trade somewhere around $17.3 million in veteran dollars compared to Rivers $15 million in value. Rivers, if signed to an extension, would likely wind up costing $23 million a year so there are significant cap benefits for the Chargers here beyond our immediate $6 million gain.

So the Titans should receive an additional $2.2 million in value to balance out the trade.   Based on where the Chargers currently pick that would make a fair package Rivers, a 3, and a 5 for the number 2 overall pick. Alternatively they could include another veteran player that would provide that additional value.

If you want to fool around with trade scenarios feel free to download this Excel spreadsheet that allows you to change your quartile expectation and valuation accordingly for a given draft slot. Simply enter the picks you are considering in a trade and see if the numbers work out to be a reasonable and fair trade for both sides. Remember these values are based on what it would cost to have a comparable veteran player on the team so if you get somewhat confused feel free to let me know.

If you are just interested in a static chart with the numbers here are the pick by pick values over minimum I have assigned to each player based on how you project the player to pan out compared to historical draft data:

NFL Draft Pick Value: Projected Performance

PickAverageTop 25%Top 50%Top 75%Mid 50%Bottom 50%
1$6,119,935$12,768,111$9,439,433$7,545,856$4,934,742$2,800,437
2$5,389,508$11,266,919$8,326,367$6,651,111$4,343,221$2,452,650
3$4,962,236$10,388,778$7,675,265$6,127,719$3,997,203$2,249,207
4$4,659,082$9,765,727$7,213,301$5,756,366$3,751,699$2,104,862
5$4,423,937$9,282,451$6,854,974$5,468,323$3,561,272$1,992,900
6$4,231,809$8,887,586$6,562,199$5,232,974$3,405,681$1,901,420
7$4,069,368$8,553,732$6,314,661$5,033,989$3,274,131$1,824,075
8$3,928,655$8,264,535$6,100,235$4,861,621$3,160,178$1,757,075
9$3,804,537$8,009,445$5,911,097$4,709,582$3,059,663$1,697,977
10$3,693,510$7,781,259$5,741,907$4,573,578$2,969,750$1,645,113
11$3,593,074$7,574,840$5,588,857$4,450,547$2,888,414$1,597,291
12$3,501,382$7,386,394$5,449,133$4,338,229$2,814,160$1,553,633
13$3,417,035$7,213,040$5,320,599$4,234,906$2,745,853$1,513,471
14$3,338,941$7,052,540$5,201,595$4,139,244$2,682,610$1,476,287
15$3,266,238$6,903,118$5,090,805$4,050,185$2,623,733$1,441,670
16$3,198,228$6,763,343$4,987,168$3,966,876$2,568,656$1,409,288
17$3,134,343$6,632,044$4,889,816$3,888,619$2,516,920$1,378,869
18$3,074,110$6,508,252$4,798,031$3,814,837$2,468,142$1,350,190
19$3,017,135$6,391,156$4,711,209$3,745,044$2,422,002$1,323,062
20$2,963,083$6,280,067$4,628,841$3,678,833$2,378,229$1,297,325
21$2,911,669$6,174,399$4,550,493$3,615,852$2,336,592$1,272,845
22$2,862,647$6,073,647$4,475,791$3,555,802$2,296,893$1,249,503
23$2,815,804$5,977,376$4,404,409$3,498,422$2,258,958$1,227,200
24$2,770,956$5,885,201$4,336,066$3,443,484$2,222,639$1,205,845
25$2,727,938$5,796,791$4,270,514$3,390,789$2,187,802$1,185,363
26$2,686,608$5,711,848$4,207,533$3,340,161$2,154,331$1,165,684
27$2,646,838$5,630,111$4,146,929$3,291,444$2,122,124$1,146,748
28$2,608,514$5,551,348$4,088,529$3,244,499$2,091,089$1,128,500
29$2,571,536$5,475,348$4,032,179$3,199,202$2,061,142$1,110,893
30$2,535,811$5,401,926$3,977,739$3,155,440$2,032,211$1,093,883
31$2,501,257$5,330,911$3,925,085$3,113,114$2,004,229$1,077,430
32$2,467,801$5,262,151$3,874,102$3,072,131$1,977,135$1,061,501
33$2,435,375$5,195,506$3,824,688$3,032,410$1,950,875$1,046,061
34$2,403,916$5,130,852$3,776,750$2,993,874$1,925,399$1,031,082
35$2,373,369$5,068,072$3,730,202$2,956,456$1,900,661$1,016,538
36$2,343,683$5,007,060$3,684,964$2,920,092$1,876,621$1,002,403
37$2,314,811$4,947,721$3,640,967$2,884,724$1,853,239$988,655
38$2,286,708$4,889,964$3,598,142$2,850,299$1,830,480$975,275
39$2,259,336$4,833,707$3,556,431$2,816,769$1,808,313$962,241
40$2,232,656$4,778,875$3,515,775$2,784,088$1,786,708$949,538
41$2,206,636$4,725,396$3,476,123$2,752,213$1,765,635$937,149
42$2,181,242$4,673,207$3,437,427$2,721,107$1,745,071$925,058
43$2,156,446$4,622,245$3,399,641$2,690,733$1,724,990$913,251
44$2,132,220$4,572,455$3,362,724$2,661,057$1,705,371$901,716
45$2,108,539$4,523,785$3,326,637$2,632,048$1,686,193$890,440
46$2,085,378$4,476,183$3,291,343$2,603,677$1,667,437$879,412
47$2,062,715$4,429,606$3,256,808$2,575,916$1,649,084$868,622
48$2,040,529$4,384,009$3,223,000$2,548,739$1,631,117$858,058
49$2,018,801$4,339,353$3,189,889$2,522,123$1,613,521$847,712
50$1,997,511$4,295,599$3,157,447$2,496,044$1,596,280$837,576
51$1,976,644$4,252,711$3,125,648$2,470,482$1,579,381$827,640
52$1,956,181$4,210,656$3,094,466$2,445,416$1,562,810$817,897
53$1,936,109$4,169,402$3,063,878$2,420,828$1,546,554$808,339
54$1,916,411$4,128,919$3,033,862$2,396,699$1,530,603$798,960
55$1,897,075$4,089,180$3,004,397$2,373,014$1,514,944$789,754
56$1,878,088$4,050,156$2,975,463$2,349,755$1,499,567$780,713
57$1,859,436$4,011,823$2,947,040$2,326,907$1,484,463$771,832
58$1,841,109$3,974,156$2,919,112$2,304,457$1,469,621$763,106
59$1,823,095$3,937,134$2,891,662$2,282,391$1,455,033$754,529
60$1,805,384$3,900,734$2,864,673$2,260,695$1,440,690$746,096
61$1,787,966$3,864,935$2,838,130$2,239,359$1,426,584$737,802
62$1,770,831$3,829,719$2,812,018$2,218,369$1,412,707$729,643
63$1,753,970$3,795,066$2,786,325$2,197,715$1,399,053$721,615
64$1,737,374$3,760,958$2,761,036$2,177,386$1,385,614$713,713
65$1,721,036$3,727,380$2,736,139$2,157,373$1,372,382$705,934
66$1,704,948$3,694,314$2,711,622$2,137,665$1,359,353$698,274
67$1,689,101$3,661,746$2,687,474$2,118,253$1,346,520$690,728
68$1,673,489$3,629,660$2,663,684$2,099,129$1,333,877$683,295
69$1,658,105$3,598,042$2,640,241$2,080,285$1,321,419$675,970
70$1,642,943$3,566,880$2,617,135$2,061,711$1,309,140$668,750
71$1,627,995$3,536,159$2,594,357$2,043,401$1,297,035$661,633
72$1,613,257$3,505,868$2,571,898$2,025,347$1,285,099$654,615
73$1,598,721$3,475,995$2,549,748$2,007,542$1,273,328$647,695
74$1,584,384$3,446,529$2,527,900$1,989,979$1,261,717$640,868
75$1,570,239$3,417,458$2,506,345$1,972,652$1,250,262$634,133
76$1,556,282$3,388,772$2,485,076$1,955,554$1,238,959$627,487
77$1,542,506$3,360,461$2,464,085$1,938,680$1,227,804$620,928
78$1,528,909$3,332,515$2,443,364$1,922,024$1,216,792$614,454
79$1,515,485$3,304,925$2,422,908$1,905,580$1,205,921$608,062
80$1,502,229$3,277,683$2,402,709$1,889,343$1,195,186$601,751
81$1,489,139$3,250,778$2,382,760$1,873,307$1,184,585$595,518
82$1,476,209$3,224,204$2,363,057$1,857,468$1,174,114$589,361
83$1,463,436$3,197,952$2,343,592$1,841,822$1,163,770$583,279
84$1,450,815$3,172,015$2,324,361$1,826,362$1,153,549$577,270
85$1,438,344$3,146,384$2,305,357$1,811,086$1,143,450$571,332
86$1,426,019$3,121,053$2,286,575$1,795,988$1,133,469$565,464
87$1,413,837$3,096,015$2,268,010$1,781,065$1,123,603$559,663
88$1,401,793$3,071,263$2,249,658$1,766,312$1,113,850$553,929
89$1,389,886$3,046,791$2,231,513$1,751,726$1,104,207$548,259
90$1,378,112$3,022,592$2,213,571$1,737,303$1,094,672$542,653
91$1,366,468$2,998,661$2,195,827$1,723,040$1,085,242$537,109
92$1,354,951$2,974,991$2,178,277$1,708,932$1,075,915$531,625
93$1,343,558$2,951,578$2,160,916$1,694,977$1,066,690$526,201
94$1,332,288$2,928,414$2,143,742$1,681,171$1,057,562$520,834
95$1,321,137$2,905,496$2,126,749$1,667,511$1,048,532$515,525
96$1,310,102$2,882,817$2,109,934$1,653,994$1,039,596$510,271
97$1,299,182$2,860,374$2,093,293$1,640,617$1,030,752$505,071
98$1,288,374$2,838,161$2,076,823$1,627,378$1,021,999$499,925
99$1,277,675$2,816,173$2,060,520$1,614,273$1,013,336$494,831
100$1,267,085$2,794,407$2,044,381$1,601,299$1,004,759$489,788
101$1,256,599$2,772,857$2,028,403$1,588,455$996,267$484,796
102$1,246,217$2,751,519$2,012,582$1,575,737$987,860$479,852
103$1,235,936$2,730,389$1,996,915$1,563,143$979,534$474,957
104$1,225,754$2,709,464$1,981,400$1,550,671$971,288$470,109
105$1,215,670$2,688,739$1,966,033$1,538,319$963,122$465,308
106$1,205,682$2,668,210$1,950,812$1,526,083$955,033$460,552
107$1,195,787$2,647,874$1,935,734$1,513,962$947,020$455,840
108$1,185,984$2,627,727$1,920,796$1,501,955$939,081$451,173
109$1,176,272$2,607,766$1,905,996$1,490,057$931,216$446,549
110$1,166,648$2,587,987$1,891,331$1,478,269$923,423$441,966
111$1,157,112$2,568,388$1,876,798$1,466,587$915,700$437,426
112$1,147,661$2,548,964$1,862,396$1,455,010$908,046$432,925
113$1,138,294$2,529,712$1,848,122$1,443,535$900,460$428,465
114$1,129,009$2,510,631$1,833,974$1,432,162$892,941$424,045
115$1,119,806$2,491,716$1,819,949$1,420,888$885,488$419,663
116$1,110,682$2,472,964$1,806,046$1,409,712$878,099$415,318
117$1,101,637$2,454,374$1,792,262$1,398,632$870,774$411,011
118$1,092,668$2,435,942$1,778,596$1,387,646$863,511$406,741
119$1,083,776$2,417,665$1,765,044$1,376,753$856,310$402,507
120$1,074,957$2,399,542$1,751,606$1,365,951$849,168$398,308
121$1,066,212$2,381,568$1,738,280$1,355,238$842,086$394,144
122$1,057,539$2,363,743$1,725,063$1,344,614$835,062$390,015
123$1,048,937$2,346,063$1,711,955$1,334,076$828,096$385,919
124$1,040,404$2,328,527$1,698,952$1,323,624$821,186$381,856
125$1,031,940$2,311,131$1,686,054$1,313,256$814,331$377,826
126$1,023,543$2,293,874$1,673,258$1,302,970$807,532$373,828
127$1,015,213$2,276,753$1,660,564$1,292,766$800,785$369,861
128$1,006,948$2,259,766$1,647,970$1,282,641$794,092$365,926
129$998,747$2,242,912$1,635,473$1,272,596$787,451$362,021
130$990,610$2,226,188$1,623,073$1,262,628$780,861$358,147
131$982,535$2,209,592$1,610,768$1,252,736$774,322$354,302
132$974,521$2,193,122$1,598,556$1,242,920$767,832$350,486
133$966,568$2,176,777$1,586,437$1,233,178$761,391$346,699
134$958,674$2,160,554$1,574,408$1,223,508$754,999$342,941
135$950,839$2,144,451$1,562,469$1,213,911$748,654$339,210
136$943,062$2,128,468$1,550,618$1,204,384$742,356$335,507
137$935,342$2,112,601$1,538,853$1,194,928$736,104$331,832
138$927,678$2,096,850$1,527,175$1,185,540$729,898$328,183
139$920,070$2,081,213$1,515,580$1,176,219$723,736$324,560
140$912,516$2,065,688$1,504,069$1,166,966$717,618$320,963
141$905,016$2,050,273$1,492,640$1,157,778$711,544$317,392
142$897,568$2,034,967$1,481,291$1,148,656$705,513$313,846
143$890,173$2,019,769$1,470,022$1,139,597$699,525$310,325
144$882,830$2,004,676$1,458,832$1,130,602$693,578$306,828
145$875,537$1,989,688$1,447,719$1,121,669$687,672$303,356
146$868,295$1,974,803$1,436,682$1,112,797$681,807$299,907
147$861,102$1,960,020$1,425,721$1,103,986$675,982$296,482
148$853,957$1,945,337$1,414,834$1,095,234$670,196$293,081
149$846,861$1,930,752$1,404,020$1,086,541$664,449$289,702
150$839,812$1,916,266$1,393,279$1,077,907$658,741$286,346
151$832,810$1,901,875$1,382,609$1,069,330$653,071$283,012
152$825,855$1,887,580$1,372,010$1,060,809$647,438$279,700
153$818,945$1,873,378$1,361,480$1,052,345$641,842$276,410
154$812,080$1,859,269$1,351,018$1,043,935$636,282$273,141
155$805,259$1,845,251$1,340,625$1,035,580$630,759$269,893
156$798,482$1,831,323$1,330,298$1,027,279$625,271$266,667
157$791,749$1,817,484$1,320,037$1,019,031$619,818$263,461
158$785,058$1,803,733$1,309,841$1,010,835$614,399$260,275
159$778,410$1,790,069$1,299,710$1,002,691$609,015$257,109
160$771,803$1,776,491$1,289,642$994,598$603,665$253,963
161$765,237$1,762,997$1,279,637$986,555$598,348$250,837
162$758,712$1,749,586$1,269,694$978,562$593,064$247,730
163$752,227$1,736,258$1,259,812$970,619$587,812$244,643
164$745,782$1,723,012$1,249,990$962,724$582,592$241,574
165$739,376$1,709,846$1,240,229$954,876$577,405$238,524
166$733,009$1,696,760$1,230,526$947,077$572,248$235,492
167$726,680$1,683,753$1,220,881$939,324$567,123$232,478
168$720,388$1,670,823$1,211,294$931,617$562,028$229,483
169$714,135$1,657,969$1,201,764$923,957$556,963$226,505
170$707,918$1,645,192$1,192,290$916,341$551,929$223,545
171$701,737$1,632,490$1,182,872$908,770$546,923$220,602
172$695,592$1,619,861$1,173,509$901,243$541,947$217,676
173$689,484$1,607,306$1,164,200$893,760$537,000$214,768
174$683,410$1,594,823$1,154,944$886,320$532,082$211,876
175$677,371$1,582,412$1,145,742$878,922$527,191$209,000
176$671,366$1,570,071$1,136,592$871,567$522,328$206,141
177$665,396$1,557,801$1,127,494$864,254$517,493$203,299
178$659,459$1,545,599$1,118,447$856,981$512,686$200,472
179$653,556$1,533,466$1,109,451$849,750$507,905$197,661
180$647,685$1,521,400$1,100,504$842,558$503,150$194,866
181$641,847$1,509,402$1,091,608$835,407$498,423$192,086
182$636,041$1,497,469$1,082,760$828,295$493,721$189,321
183$630,267$1,485,602$1,073,961$821,222$489,045$186,572
184$624,524$1,473,799$1,065,210$814,187$484,394$183,838
185$618,812$1,462,061$1,056,507$807,190$479,769$181,118
186$613,132$1,450,385$1,047,850$800,232$475,168$178,413
187$607,481$1,438,773$1,039,240$793,310$470,592$175,723
188$601,861$1,427,222$1,030,675$786,426$466,041$173,047
189$596,271$1,415,733$1,022,156$779,578$461,514$170,385
190$590,710$1,404,304$1,013,682$772,766$457,010$167,737
191$585,178$1,392,935$1,005,253$765,990$452,531$165,104
192$579,675$1,381,625$996,867$759,249$448,074$162,483
193$574,201$1,370,375$988,526$752,543$443,641$159,877
194$568,755$1,359,182$980,227$745,872$439,231$157,284
195$563,337$1,348,047$971,971$739,236$434,843$154,704
196$557,947$1,336,969$963,757$732,633$430,478$152,138
197$552,584$1,325,947$955,585$726,064$426,135$149,584
198$547,249$1,314,981$947,454$719,528$421,814$147,044
199$541,940$1,304,071$939,364$713,025$417,515$144,516
200$536,658$1,293,215$931,315$706,554$413,237$142,001
201$531,402$1,282,413$923,306$700,116$408,981$139,498
202$526,172$1,271,665$915,337$693,710$404,746$137,008
203$520,968$1,260,969$907,407$687,335$400,532$134,531
204$515,790$1,250,327$899,516$680,992$396,338$132,065
205$510,637$1,239,736$891,663$674,680$392,165$129,611
206$505,509$1,229,197$883,849$668,398$388,012$127,170
207$500,406$1,218,709$876,073$662,147$383,880$124,740
208$495,328$1,208,272$868,334$655,926$379,767$122,322
209$490,274$1,197,885$860,632$649,735$375,674$119,915
210$485,244$1,187,547$852,967$643,574$371,601$117,520
211$480,237$1,177,258$845,338$637,442$367,546$115,137
212$475,255$1,167,018$837,746$631,338$363,512$112,764
213$470,296$1,156,826$830,189$625,264$359,496$110,403
214$465,360$1,146,682$822,668$619,218$355,499$108,053
215$460,448$1,136,585$815,181$613,200$351,520$105,714
216$455,558$1,126,535$807,730$607,210$347,560$103,386
217$450,690$1,116,532$800,313$601,247$343,618$101,068
218$445,845$1,106,574$792,929$595,312$339,695$98,761
219$441,022$1,096,662$785,580$589,405$335,789$96,465
220$436,222$1,086,795$778,264$583,524$331,901$94,179
221$431,442$1,076,973$770,982$577,670$328,031$91,903
222$426,685$1,067,196$763,732$571,842$324,178$89,638
223$421,949$1,057,462$756,515$566,040$320,343$87,383
224$417,234$1,047,772$749,330$560,265$316,524$85,138
225$412,540$1,038,125$742,177$554,515$312,723$82,903
226$407,867$1,028,520$735,056$548,790$308,939$80,678
227$403,214$1,018,958$727,966$543,091$305,171$78,463
228$398,582$1,009,439$720,908$537,417$301,420$76,257
229$393,971$999,960$713,880$531,768$297,685$74,062
230$389,379$990,523$706,883$526,143$293,967$71,875
231$384,807$981,128$699,916$520,543$290,264$69,698
232$380,255$971,772$692,980$514,967$286,578$67,531
233$375,723$962,457$686,073$509,415$282,907$65,373
234$371,210$953,182$679,196$503,887$279,253$63,224
235$366,716$943,946$672,348$498,382$275,614$61,085
236$362,241$934,750$665,529$492,901$271,990$58,954
237$357,786$925,592$658,739$487,443$268,381$56,832
238$353,349$916,473$651,978$482,008$264,788$54,720
239$348,930$907,392$645,245$476,595$261,210$52,616
240$344,530$898,349$638,540$471,206$257,647$50,521
241$340,149$889,344$631,863$465,838$254,099$48,435
242$335,785$880,376$625,214$460,493$250,565$46,357
243$331,440$871,445$618,592$455,170$247,046$44,288
244$327,112$862,551$611,997$449,869$243,541$42,227
245$322,802$853,693$605,429$444,589$240,051$40,175
246$318,510$844,871$598,888$439,331$236,575$38,131
247$314,235$836,085$592,374$434,095$233,113$36,096
248$309,977$827,334$585,886$428,879$229,665$34,069
249$305,736$818,619$579,424$423,684$226,230$32,049
250$301,513$809,939$572,988$418,511$222,810$30,038
251$297,306$801,293$566,577$413,358$219,403$28,035
252$293,116$792,682$560,192$408,225$216,010$26,040
253$288,943$784,104$553,833$403,113$212,630$24,053
254$284,786$775,561$547,498$398,021$209,264$22,074
255$280,645$767,051$541,188$392,949$205,911$20,102

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  • McGeorge

    With the new CBA and the rookie wage scale, there is much greater value in the earlier picks.
    There are alternative charts, that show career value, but they don’t factor in the low cap hit these guys get the first few years.

    What I’ve learned from OTC is when I buy my next NFL team, I’m going to get a great QB every time I draft, keep them several years, then trade them. That way I get to pay less than 1MM/year for a good QB, and save the money for other players.

    Jason, the only thing I don’t agree with you is QBs are a different animal, and have to be evaluated separately. Unlike all other positions, there are no “replacements” who aren’t a lot worse than the “avearge”. You can get by with an off the shelf LB or RB, not so a QB, unless it’s a rare case where a good one goes free agent, and then your going to end up over paying, and probably get an old QB as well. Then again, maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick will be “average” and the Jets can sniff the play offs.