Contract Year Series, Matt Ryan

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Matt Ryan #2 QB, Atlanta Falcons

by Paul Carrozzo

On July 9th, Matthew Stafford signed a 5 year $76.5 million contract with the Detroit Lions.  That signing along with the rumors leading up to the signing put Matt Ryan back on the mind. After watching the Baltimore Ravens gamble and lose with Joe Flacco, the question on most fans minds is how soon Matt Ryan’s contract will be extended by the Falcons.  Ryan is in the final year of his rookie contract (6 year $67.5 million) and is in position to really break the bank on his next contract.

We must remember where the Falcon franchise was in 2008 when they drafted Ryan 3rd overall.  The Mike Vick disaster had the club searching for a new face that it could be proud.  Matt Ryan was the man that not only pulled the Falcons out of the depths of public outcry, but it can be argued that the Falcons are now completely distanced from the incident because of Ryan.  How can something as unprecedented as this be valued?  It really is up to the Falcon brass to weigh in, but my assumption is that the Falcons will not go into the season without extending Ryan.

Oddly enough, it is the contract that Vick signed with the Eagles in 2011 that most closely resembles Ryan’s present value.  Add that skill valuation with the goodwill he has created in Atlanta, and it is a recipe for a Top 5 QB contract.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $86 million

  • NW86

    I’d actually expect Ryan’s new deal to come in right around $20M/year, say 5 years/$100M. Brees, Flacco, and Rodgers have already topped that number and I don’t see any reason why Ryan shouldn’t.

    • Paul

      I am probably a little low. Ryan’s camp is looking for $18-22M/year. I think this is why we have come this far in the negotiations as the Falcons are not willing to pony up that range. Time is on the side of Ryan considering another good year will vault his price tag.

    • Ox

      hit it on the head NW – $20.75/yr – $103.75/5yrs

      • I had a similar number here http://overthecap.com/the-options-fo-falcons-qb-matt-ryan/ (20.57 million). I think you can usually find trends in contracts and IMO Ryan was going to be Phillip Rivers to Aaron Rodgers’ Eli Manning. The “winning” QB sets the market price and the guy that is expected to be the next “winner” settles in right underneath.

        • Ox

          Are we done now for a couple of years outside of Eli’s last big deal coming up? Newton’s got 2 year left, 2012’s big 3 are a couple of years away. Cutler’s really in the tier below for contracts, Rivers is done.

          • Eli is the one. I thought Rodgers would get more and that maybe was the sign of how overblown the pricing had become. Brady taking the “retirement deal” had to be a real disappointment to agents. I guess if Bradford or Freeman(more so Bradford) won a SB they could get a deal done in the next year or two, though Id imagine both are considered longshots.

            Outside of Eli I would think the only player with a real chance is Roethlisberger most likely if the Steelers decided to let him walk. Im sure a team would fork over a fortune for him. I dont know what the Steelers would think about him making more than Flacco, but with the two in the same division and only 3 years apart in age it makes a very interesting financial dynamic for the Steelers. One one side you have an established player, 2 rings and 3 SB appearances whose style of play has helped mask some deficiencies on that team vs the less established guy being paid based on the thought that he will improve upon his SB season and get back again.

          • NW86

            True, but then Ben is also over 30 and has 3 more years (through 2015) left on his contract. I think Ben will look at it like you said and expect $20M+ per year, but I don’t think the Steelers will be ready to fork over that type of a deal next year. They can always make him play out his current deal through 2014 at least, and see if he can remain healthy and productive.

      • NW86

        Yep! I just didn’t realize it would happen 2 days later! 😀

    • Paul

      Great job NW. I was low on Matty Ice. The Falcons can really concentrate on polishing this SB contender now. They have about $7 million in space this year so ready to make the run.