With the season ¾ of the way complete I wanted to post my updated power rankings and do a brief forecast for the remainder of the year.  If you are unfamiliar with these metrics they score teams based on how much more or less they score than their opposition generally allows and how much they hold teams under their averages. So a team with a 24% scoring efficiency scores 24% more than their opponents allow against other opponents and a -24% defensive efficiency would indicate that they hold a team to 24% less than their normal scoring output. Total efficiency is simply the combination of the two numbers and the predicted record is a historical look at what teams with these efficiency score would normally finish the season at. For our forecast well look at the upcoming SOS and see where matchup issues may occur. Continue reading OTC Power Rankings and Thoughts on Future Records »

We are halfway through the season so in this weeks power rankings we’ll take a look at the best and worst divisions so far and look, who caught lucky breaks in the first half of the year and who is going to have a much tougher road in the second half of the season.

Not surprisingly the best division in our scoring efficiency metrics is the NFC East. They have two powerhouse teams in Dallas and Philadelphia, though the Eagles are trending down, and the Redskins and Giants are basically average. The 19.4% average performance is about 5% closer than the next closest division, which is the AFC West. Continue reading 2016 Power Rankings- Week 8 »

After 7 weeks being complete I decided to start doing my power rankings again.  For those unfamiliar with my power rankings that are based on efficiency measurements which measure how much teams score above or hold teams below their seasonal averages. So for example if we have a team with a 40% scoring efficiency they are scoring 40% more points than their opponents points allowed. A defensive efficiency of -30% would indicate a team is has allowed 30% less points than their opponents points scored.  There is also a predicted win column that indicates on average what a team’s record would be if they were to play the rest of the season at this same level. This week we’ll look at the good, bad, and ugly when it comes to spending and return on investment. Continue reading 2016 Power Rankings- Week 7 »

We have the updated standings now online for the NFL Power Rankings. Again these are rankings that simply measure a teams actual scoring performance versus their expected scoring performance based on strength of schedule. So if a teams scoring efficiency is at 11.5% it means they score 11.5% more points, on average, than expected.  This week saw a bit of a shuffle in the top 5 with the Jets no-show in Oakland dropping them out while the Packers loss to Denver did the same. Continue reading OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 9 »

I just updated the power rankings through week 7. These rankings are not based on my opinions of the teams but instead on how efficient the teams are at scoring and preventing points being scored when compared to their specific schedule. Next week O’ll add the projected records to the charts. The way we calculate a teams ranking is as follows:

Scoring Efficiency= (teams points scored per game – schedule’s points allowed per game)/(schedules points allowed per game)

Defensive Efficiency = (schedules points scored per game – teams points allowed per game)/(schedules points scored per game)

Continue reading OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 8 »

Here are the updated power rankings through the 6th week of the season. These rankings are not based on my opinions of the teams but instead on how efficient the teams are at scoring and preventing points being scored when compared to their specific schedule. The way we calculate a teams ranking is as follows:

Scoring Efficiency= (teams points scored per game – schedule’s points allowed per game)/(schedules points allowed per game)

Defensive Efficiency = (schedules points scored per game – teams points allowed per game)/(schedules points scored per game)

Continue reading OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 7 »

Welcome to our first edition of our 2015 NFL Power Rankings. These rankings are not based on my opinions of the teams but instead on how efficient the teams are at scoring and preventing points being scored when compared to their specific schedule. The way we calculate a teams ranking is as follows:

Scoring Efficiency= (teams points scored per game – schedule’s points allowed per game)/(schedules points allowed per game)

Defensive Efficiency = (schedules points scored per game – teams points allowed per game)/(schedules points scored per game)

Continue reading OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 6 »