2017 NFL Draft 1st Round Contract Projections

Here are our projections for the contracts that will be signed by the first round picks of the NFL draft. Ive also included where there contracts will rank among current players in the NFL. You can check out the OTC Draft page for more information on each round. I’ll try to run a thread later tonight on any draft thoughts as the draft goes on so check back in for that.

PickTEAMProjected ContractProjected APYProjected CapAPY RankFull Guarantee Rank
1Browns$30,408,550$7,602,138$5,528,82717227
249ers$29,028,894$7,257,224$5,277,98118331
3Bears$28,150,940$7,037,735$5,118,35319634
4Jaguars$27,147,574$6,786,894$4,935,92221537
5Titans$25,391,648$6,347,912$4,616,66324147
6Jets$22,256,084$5,564,021$4,046,56128468
7Chargers$19,747,636$4,936,909$3,590,47932798
8Panthers$17,239,192$4,309,798$3,134,398352119
9Bengals$17,113,760$4,278,440$3,111,593355121
10Bills$16,423,942$4,105,986$2,986,171374134
11Saints$15,357,848$3,839,462$2,792,336401151
12Browns$13,852,776$3,463,194$2,518,686432178
13Cardinals$13,476,514$3,369,129$2,450,275439181
14Eagles$12,849,404$3,212,351$2,336,255454196
15Colts$12,598,556$3,149,639$2,290,646460202
16Ravens$11,846,014$2,961,504$2,153,821491223
17Redskins$11,595,170$2,898,793$2,108,213499228
18Titans$11,281,622$2,820,406$2,051,204503237
19Buccaneers$11,093,482$2,773,371$2,016,997509239
20Broncos$11,030,774$2,757,694$2,005,595511240
21Lions$10,968,060$2,742,015$1,994,193526253
22Dolphins$10,842,638$2,710,660$1,971,389529266
23Giants$10,717,216$2,679,304$1,948,585531271
24Raiders$10,466,372$2,616,593$1,902,977537297
25Texans$10,340,946$2,585,237$1,880,172541300
26Seahawks$10,215,524$2,553,881$1,857,368544309
27Chiefs$10,090,102$2,522,526$1,834,564547328
28Cowboys$10,027,398$2,506,850$1,823,163551329
29Packers$9,524,166$2,381,042$1,731,666578343
30Steelers$9,257,666$2,314,417$1,683,212591352
31Falcons$9,034,450$2,258,613$1,642,627596361
32Saints$8,890,720$2,222,680$1,616,494605365

Revisiting the Jets First Round Picks Since 1995

Every year at draft time there are a few teams that always stand out for their years of futility and one of those teams is the team I cheer for- the New York Jets. In fairness the Jets aren’t as bad as some of the other teams in the last 20 or so years, but when they whiff they usually have whiffed badly and the reactions on draft day have always been priceless. So for fun I decided to go back and look at what could have been for every first round pick the Jets have made since 1995.  Continue reading Revisiting the Jets First Round Picks Since 1995 »

The Retention Rate of the Top Draft Picks

With teams prepared to make pretty big financial commitments to the top picks in the draft I wanted to a quick look back and see what the payoffs were on those picks. This is nothing fancy like my trade value tables or anything like that just a basic look at success rates mainly measured by a teams decision to retain the player. Continue reading The Retention Rate of the Top Draft Picks »

Examining the Proven Performance Escalator

The eve of free agency carries with it the promise of new fortune. When the annual spending spree launches in earnest tomorrow, it will bring life-changing pay raises to dozens of younger players. A number of other fourth-year players, meanwhile, will enjoy more modest pay increases in the coming season due to an aspect of the collective bargaining agreement called the Proven Performance Escalator.

Continue reading Examining the Proven Performance Escalator »

Projecting The 2017 Compensatory Draft Picks

This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2017 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

Furthermore, due to the complexity I have written separate articles on all possible compensatory pick scenarios on the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins.  You may find the Broncos’ article at Thin Air, and the Dolphins’ article here at OTC. Continue reading Projecting The 2017 Compensatory Draft Picks »