Expected Contract Value

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—89.2%—$5,250,000
2016$3,375,00023.3%$786,375$1,000,000
2017$4,375,0005.8%$253,750—
Subtotal$1,040,125$6,250,000
Total$7,290,125
Mark Sanchez
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—97.3%—$4,500,000
2016$3,500,00045.5%$1,592,500$1,000,000
Subtotal$1,592,500$5,500,000
Total$7,092,500
Brian Hoyer
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00092.9%$464,500$4,750,000
2016$5,250,00029.4%$1,543,500—
Subtotal$2,008,000$4,750,000
Total$6,758,000
Ryan Mallett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00092.0%$1,610,000$1,750,000
2016$3,500,00041.0%$1,435,000—
Subtotal$3,045,000$1,750,000
Total$4,795,000
Shaun Hill
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$50,00076.1%$38,050$3,200,000
2016$3,250,0008.2%$266,500—
Subtotal$304,550$3,200,000
Total$3,504,550
Blaine Gabbert
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00088.5%$1,327,500$500,000
2016$2,000,00055.6%$1,112,000—
Subtotal$2,439,500$500,000
Total$2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.9%—$9,000,000
2016—98.2%—$7,000,000
2017$6,000,00074.7%$4,482,000$2,000,000
2018$8,000,00036.0%$2,880,000—
2019$8,000,00025.7%$2,056,000—
Subtotal$9,418,000$18,000,000
Total$27,418,000
Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200—
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200—
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750—
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000—
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500—
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500
Ryan Matthews
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.4%—$4,000,000
2016$2,000,00082.2%$1,644,000$1,000,000
2017$4,000,00035.9%$1,436,000—
Subtotal$3,080,000$5,000,000
Total$8,080,000
Jerome Felton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.8%$98,800$3,600,000
2016$1,650,00079.3%$1,308,450—
2017$1,850,00046.6%$862,100—
2018$2,000,00024.8%$496,000—
Subtotal$2,765,350$3,600,000
Total$6,365,350
Justin Forsett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—97.8%—$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00052.3%$1,569,000—
2017$3,000,00026.6%$798,000—
Subtotal$2,367,000$3,000,000
Total$5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000—
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000—
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000—
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200—
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000—
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500—
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000—
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000—
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000—
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000—
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750
Dwayne Harris
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00099.9%$24,975$4,975,000
2016$875,00096.7%$846,125$2,125,000
2017$3,000,00070.5%$2,115,000—
2018$3,250,00042.4%$1,378,000—
2019$3,250,00028.1%$913,250—
Subtotal$5,277,350$7,100,000
Total$12,377,350
Andre Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—92.9%—$7,500,000
2016$2,500,00037.6%$940,000$2,500,000
2017$6,000,0009.2%$552,000—
Subtotal$1,492,000$10,000,000
Total$11,492,000
Eddie Royal
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.1%—$5,500,000
2016—86.9%—$4,500,000
2017$5,000,00024.3%$1,215,000—
Subtotal$1,215,000$10,000,000
Total$11,215,000
Brian Hartline
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—95.8%—$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00037.9%——
Subtotal$1,137,000$3,000,000
Total$4,137,000
Ted Ginn
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00084.5%$845,000$1,700,000
2016$1,500,00034.6%$519,000—
Subtotal$1,364,000$1,700,000
Total$3,064,000
Jacoby Jones
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$900,00082.0%$738,000$1,600,000
2016$3,000,00020.7%$621,000—
Subtotal$1,359,000$1,600,000
Total$2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600—
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400—
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000—
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Lance Kendricks
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—98.9%—$5,500,000
2016$3,250,00086.5%$2,811,250$1,250,000
2017$4,250,00058.3%$2,477,750—
2018$4,250,00030.9%$1,313,250—
Subtotal$6,602,250$6,750,000
Total$13,352,250
Owen Daniels
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00086.0%$1,505,000$3,000,000
2016$3,500,00038.0%$1,330,000—
2017$4,000,00014.7%$588,000—
Subtotal$3,423,000$3,000,000
Total$6,423,000
Lee Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00097.6%$244,000$3,100,000
2016$2,750,00071.5%$1,966,250—
2017$3,250,00034.1%$1,108,250—
Subtotal$3,318,500$3,100,000
Total$6,418,500
Virgil Green
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—98.3%—$3,200,000
2016$2,400,00066.2%$1,588,800—
2017$2,800,00037.2%$1,041,600—
Subtotal$2,630,400$3,200,000
Total$5,830,500
Ed Dickson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$850,00095.9%$815,150$2,000,000
2016$1,900,00065.7%$1,248,300—
2017$2,050,00034.7%$711,350—
Subtotal$2,774,800$2,000,000
Total$4,774,800
Niles Paul
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00098.3%$245,750$2,250,000
2016$1,500,00073.7%$1,105,500—
2017$2,000,00043.3%$866,000—
Subtotal$2,217,250$2,250,000
Total$4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000—
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750—
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250—
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000—
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000
Jeremy Parnell
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.5%—$8,000,000
2016—94.4%—$6,500,000
2017$6,500,00056.5%$3,672,500—
2018$5,000,00038.1%$1,905,000—
2019$6,000,00016.9%$1,014,000—
Subtotal$6,591,500$14,500,000
Total$21,091,500
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.7%—$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250—
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000—
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500—
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250
King Dunlap
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00098.5%$492,500$8,500,000
2016$5,000,00077.5%$3,875,000—
2017$6,750,00039.6%$2,673,000—
2018$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250—
Subtotal$8,584,750$8,500,000
Total$17,084,750
Doug Free
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—96.9%—$6,000,000
2016$4,000,00048.4%$1,936,000—
2017$5,000,00018.2%$910,000—
Subtotal$2,846,000$6,000,000
Total$8,846,000
Joe Reitz
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00088.9%$1,555,750$1,500,000
2016$2,250,00054.6%$1,228,500—
2017$2,500,00020.9%$522,500—
Subtotal$3,306,750$1,500,000
Total$4,806,750
Michael Oher
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00089.0%$1,112,500$2,500,000
2016$3,250,00034.6%$1,124,500—
Subtotal$2,237,000$2,500,000
Total$4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$400,00098.8%$395,200$12,600,000
2016$7,700,00089.4%$6,883,800—
2017$6,850,00077.9%$5,336,150—
2018$8,350,00053.5%$4,467,250—
2019$8,600,00030.0%$2,580,000—
Subtotal$19,662,400$12,600,000
Total$32,262,400
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.9%—$10,000,000
2016—97.2%—$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000—
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000—
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250—
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Clint Boling
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00098.2%$2,062,200$5,000,000
2016$4,250,00084.9%$3,608,250—
2017$4,450,00066.2%$2,945,900—
2018$4,950,00041.9%$2,074,050—
2019$5,250,00030.4%$1,596,000—
Subtotal$12,286,400$5,000,000
Total$17,286,400
James Carpenter
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.1%—$5,000,000
2016$4,700,00077.8%$3,656,600—
2017$4,700,00053.5%$2,514,500—
2018$4,700,00037.1%$1,743,700—
Subtotal$7,914,800$5,000,000
Total$12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.5%—$4,000,000
2016$1,200,00091.2%$1,094,400$1,000,000
2017$2,800,00051.4%$1,439,200—
2018$3,000,00026.7%$801,000—
2019$3,000,00017.4%$522,000—
Subtotal$3,856,600$5,000,000
Total$8,856,600
Matt Prater
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00079.5%$993,750$750,000
2016$2,500,00035.2%$880,000—
2017$3,700,00012.7%$469,900—
Subtotal$2,343,650$750,000
Total$3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts 3/12

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Ndamukong Suh
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$15,000100.0%$15,000$26,485,000
2016$15,00099.0%$14,850$23,485,000
2017$15,00094.8%$14,220$9,985,000
2018$17,000,00050.5%$8,585,000—
2019$19,000,00034.0%$6,460,000—
2020$18,360,00016.6%$3,047,760—
Subtotal$18,136,830$59,955,000
Total$78,091,830

Pass Catchers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000—
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000—
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000—
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200—
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000—
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500—
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600—
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400—
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000—
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000—
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000—
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000—
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000—
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200—
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200—
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750—
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000—
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500—
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500

Offensive Lineman:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000—
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750—
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250—
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000—
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000 (70.4%)
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.9%—$10,000,000
2016—97.2%—$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000—
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000—
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250—
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.7%—$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250—
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000—
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500—
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.7%$149,550$11,625,000
2016$4,675,00097.0%$4,534,750$6,000,000
2017$7,550,00076.6%$5,783,300—
2018$7,500,00048.3%$3,622,500—
2019$7,500,00030.1%$2,257,500—
Subtotal$16,347,600$17,625,000
Total$33,972,600
Brandon Graham
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.6%—$9,000,000
2016—96.0%—$4,000,000
2017$6,500,00047.8%$3,107,000—
2018$6,500,00031.2%$2,028,000—
Subtotal$5,135,000$13,000,000
Total$18,135,000

Defensive Backs:

Darrelle Revis
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.7%—$16,000,000
2016—95.9%—$17,000,000
2017$9,000,00064.8%$5,832,000$6,000,000
2018$11,000,00032.2%$3,542,000—
2019$11,000,00015.3%$1,683,000—
Subtotal$11,057,000$39,000,000
Total$50,057,000
Devin McCourty
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00099.9%$499,500$17,500,000
2016$500,00098.1%$490,500$4,500,000
2017$7,000,00074.3%$5,201,000—
2018$8,000,00042.5%$3,400,000—
2019$9,500,00022.5%$2,137,500—
Subtotal$11,728,500$22,000,000
Total$33,728,500
Kareem Jackson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.8%$249,500$14,000,000
2016$250,00096.5%$241,250$6,000,000
2017$6,750,00058.9%$3,975,750—
2018$6,750,00037.2%$2,511,000—
Subtotal$6,977,500$20,000,000
Total$26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.9%—$10,250,000
2016—94.0%—$7,750,000
2017$9,000,00038.4%$3,456,000—
2018$9,400,00021.3%$2,002,200—
Subtotal$5,458,200$18,000,000
Total$23,458,200
Buster Skrine
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—99.9%—$6,500,000
2016—96.6%—$6,500,000
2017$6,000,00053.7%$3,222,000—
2018$6,000,00037.5%$2,250,000—
Subtotal$5,472,000$13,000,000
Total$18,472,000
Cary Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015—96.6%—$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00049.0%$2,450,000—
2017$6,000,00021.7%$1,302,000—
Subtotal$3,752,000$7,000,000
Total$10,752,000

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC North

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Baltimore Ravens:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Eugene Monroe98.4%NO
Terrell Suggs98.2%NO
Joe Flacco98.1%NO
Dennis Pitta97.8%NO
Jeremy Zuttah95.1%NO
Elvis Dumervil76.1%NO
Lardarius Webb72.5%NO
Jacoby Jones71.9%NO
Daryl Smith56.2%NO
Marshal Yanda37.1%YES
Haloti Ngata36.3%YES
Steve Smith24.8%YES
Chris Canty22.1%YES
Sam Koch17.9%YES

Pittsburgh Steelers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Ryan Shazier99.9%NO
Jarvis Jones98.3%NO
Maurkice Pouncey98.2%NO
Marcus Gilbert95.6%NO
Cortez Allen95.2%NO
Antonio Brown88.5%NO
Mike Mitchell87.8%NO
Shaun Suisham71.4%NO
David DeCastro71.2%NO
Lawrence Timmons61.9%NO
Heath Miller61.2%NO
Troy Polamalu46.6%YES
Cam Thomas44.2%YES
Steve McLendon39.5%YES
Ramon Foster36.9%YES
Ben Roethlisberger22.8%YES

Cincinnati Bengals:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Tyler Eifert97.4%NO
Andy Dalton97.0%NO
Carlos Dunlap95.2%NO
Vontaze Burfict94.9%NO
Geno Atkins93.8%NO
Dre Kirkpatrick81.0%NO
Domata Peko74.0%NO
Kevin Zeitler71.0%NO
Kevin Huber55.1%NO
Andre Smith46.0%YES
Leon Hall36.2%YES
Vincent Rey35.9%YES
Wallace Gillberry33.1%YES
Reggie Nelson27.4%YES
Adam Jones20.8%YES
Robert Geathers19.7%YES
Andrew Whitworth19.7%YES

Cleveland Browns:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Justin Gilbert99.9%NO
Joe Haden99.4%NO
Alex Mack95.6%NO
Barkevious Mingo93.8%NO
Donte Whitner83.0%NO
Karlos Dansby79.7%NO
Joe Thomas71.4%NO
Andrew Hawkins67.0%NO
Paul Kruger64.4%NO
Desmond Bryant63.8%NO

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC South

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC South

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South 

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Indianapolis Colts:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Bjoern Werner96.2%NO
Vontae Davis90.3%NO
D’Qwell Jackson87.9%NO
Trent Richardson83.5%NO
Arthur Jones81.0%NO
Gosder Cherilus80.0%NO
Andrew Luck75.3%NO
Pat McAfee74.6%NO
LaRon Landry58.0%NONO
Ricky Jean-Francois52.3%NO
Robert Mathis45.3%YES
Donald Thomas43.8%YES
Erik Walden37.2%YES
Greg Toler27.2%YES
Shaun Phillips12.3%YESYES
Adam Vinatieri2.0%YES

Houston Texans:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Jadeveon Clowney99.9%NO
Brian Cushing98.2%NO
JJ Watt98.1%NO
DeAndre Hopkins97.7%NO
Duane Brown73.5%NO
Whitney Mercilus71.1%NO
Garrett Graham61.5%NO
Arian Foster57.4%NO
Johnathan Joseph30.6%YES
Ryan Fitzpatrick23.3%YES
Andre Johnson17.7%YES
Chris Myers15.3%YES
Shane Lechler4.5%YES

Tennessee Titans:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Taylor Lewan99.9%NO
Jurrell Casey98.3%NO
Chance Warmack96.2%NO
Kendall Wright82.2%NO
Andy Levitre80.0%NO
Wesley Woodyard78.9%NO
Dexter McCluster78.6%NO
Michael Oher77.0%NONO
Jason McCourty74.0%NO
Kamerion Wimbley61.9%NO
Ropati Pitoitua54.2%NO
Michael Griffin44.5%YES
Al Woods42.9%YES
Sammie Lee Hill42.1%YES
Delanie Walker37.6%YES
Shonn Greene32.0%YES
Craig Stevens21.1%YES
Charlie Whitehurst17.0%YES

Jacksonville Jaguars:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Blake Bortles99.9%NO
Luke Joeckel99.0%NO
Zane Beadles92.3%NO
Roy Miller85.0%NO
Ziggy Hood80.3%NO
Justin Blackmon74.4%NO
Toby Gerhart72.0%NO
Red Bryant66.3%NO
Sen’Derrick Marks65.7%NO
Chris Clemons50.9%NO
Paul Posluszny39.8%YES
Chad Henne31.8%YES
Mercedes Lewis26.4%YES
Josh Scobee18.1%YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC South

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC South

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

AFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Carolina Panthers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Star Lotululei98.3%NO
Jonathan Stewart95.2%NO
Luke Kuechly90.2%NO
Graham Gano84.1%NO
Ryan Kalil65.7%NO
Charles Johnson62.1%NO
DeAngelo Williams54.8%NO
Greg Olson40.9%YES
Mike Tolbert39.9%YES
Thomas DeCoud29.3%YESYES
Thomas Davis26.3%YES

Atlanta Falcons:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Jake Matthews99.9%NO
Desmond Trufant96.7%NO
Matt Ryan96.2%NO
Tyson Jackson95.4%NO
Jon Asamoah94.9%NO
Sam Baker87.7%NO
Paul Soliai87.7%NO
Roddy White80.7%NO
William Moore74.0%NO
Joe Hawley57.7%NO
Justin Blalock46.3%YES
Devin Hester42.6%YES
Jonathan Babineaux33.2%YES
Harry Douglas24.7%YES
Steven Jackson23.5%YES

New Orleans Saints:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Kenny Vaccaro98.8%NO
Junior Galette98.5%NO
Jairus Byrd97.6%NO
Keenan Lewis89.5%NO
Zach Strief89.3%NO
Jimmy Graham85.6%NO
Thomas Morstead80.7%NO
Curtis Lofton62.8%NO
Pierre Thomas49.0%YES
Brodrick Bunkley46.5%YES
Ben Grubbs44.0%YES
David Hawthorne41.6%YES
Marques Colston34.9%YES
Jahri Evans31.8%YES
Drew Brees16.3%YES

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Mike Evans99.9%NO
Gerald McCoy96.7%NO
Michael Johnson93.4%NO
Anthony Collins90.8%NO
Alterraun Verner90.2%NO
Clinton McDonald79.0%NO
Evan Dietrich-Smith74.9%NO
Dashon Goldson74.7%NO
Doug Martin64.7%NO
Demar Dotson63.5%NO
Vincent Jackson31.5%YES
Logan Mankins28.9%YES
Michael Koenen25.7%YES
Josh McCown7.8%YESYES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC West

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC West

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Denver Broncos:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Chris Harris99.8%NO
Sylvester Williams95.1%NO
Aqib Talib85.4%NO
T.J. Ward74.7%NO
Emmanuel Sanders64.1%NO
DeMarcus Ware62.0%NO
Louis Vasquez61.1%NO
Britton Colquitt57.2%NO
Ryan Clady54.1%NO
Manny Ramirez19.8%YES
Peyton Manning5.4%YES

Kansas City Chiefs:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Allen Bailey99.2%NO
Eric Fisher95.8%NO
Alex Smith88.0%NO
Dontari Poe87.7%NO
Jamaal Charles82.3%NO
Vance Walker71.8%NO
Eric Berry66.8%NO
Dwayne Bowe63.8%NO
Anthony Fasano47.5%YES
Dustin Colquitt46.8%YES
Sean Smith45.5%YES
Chase Daniel41.5%YES
Joe Mays32.8%YES
Tamba Hali31.6%YES
Mike DeVito28.4%YES
Donnie Avery21.7%YESYES
Derrick Johnson20.7%YES

San Diego Chargers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Donald Butler99.9%NO
DJ Fluker98.7%NO
Danny Woodhead82.0%NO
Melvin Ingram76.8%NO
Donald Brown71.2%NO
John Phillips50.0%NO
Eric Weddle34.2%YES
Chad Rinehart27.1%YES
Mike Scifres19.7%YES
Philip Rivers16.6%YES
Malcom Floyd15.8%YES
Antonio Gates14.9%YES
Jarret Johnson12.5%YES

Oakland Raiders:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Khalil Mack99.9%NO
DJ Hayden95.3%NO
Austin Howard89.4%NO
Tyvon Branch83.6%NO
Marcel Reece60.5%NO
Maurice Jones Drew57.4%NO
James Jones50.3%NO
Nick Roach48.4%YES
Lamarr Woodley28.7%YES
Sebastian Janikowski21.5%YES
Justin Tuck19.9%YES
Donald Penn19.4%YES
Antonio Smith17.6%YES
Matt Schaub15.0%YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC West

Posted on by Bryce Johnston

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC West

NFC East

AFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Seattle Seahawks:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Earl Thomas99.3%NO
Cliff Avril97.6%NO
KJ Wright96.1%NO
Richard Sherman93.9%NO
Kam Chancellor84.6%NO
Doug Baldwin82.5%NO
Michael Bennett80.3%NO
Russell Okung61.2%NO
Bruce Irvin60.6%NO
Steven Hauschka58.3%NO
Max Unger57.4%NO
Marshawn Lynch39.1%YES
Zach Miller38.6%YES
Tony McDaniel30.9%YES
Brandon Mebane28.0%YES

San Francisco 49ers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Anthony Davis98.8%NO
Eric Reid98.7%NO
Colin Kaepernick95.0%NO
NaVorro Bowman93.7%NO
Joe Staley92.2%NO
Tramaine Brock87.9%NO
Glenn Dorsey76.2%NO
Antoine Bethea73.5%NO
Steve Johnson67.0%NO
Andy Lee55.5%NO
Ahmad Brooks49.7%YES
Patrick Willis37.0%YES
Vernon Davis34.6%YES
Alex Boone33.5%YES
Anquan Boldin24.1%YES
Justin Smith13.1%YES
Phil Dawson3.5%YES

Arizona Cardinals:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Patrick Peterson97.2%NO
Jonathan Cooper94.9%NO
Daryl Washington93.0%NO
Jared Veldheer93.0%NO
Michael Floyd87.7%NO
Carson Palmer69.4%NO
Calais Campbell62.1%NO
Larry Fitzgerald56.0%NO
Ted Ginn52.1%NO
Matt Shaughnessy46.3%YES
Jerraud Powers38.4%YES
Lyle Sendlein28.1%YES
Rashad Johnson27.1%YES
Drew Stanton23.4%YES
Lorenzo Alexander22.2%YES
Darnell Dockett18.3%YES

St. Louis Rams:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Greg Robinson99.9%NO
Aaron Donald99.9%NO
Tavon Austin98.7%NO
Robert Quinn98.6%NO
Johnny Hekker98.5%NO
Jared Cook91.3%NO
Michael Brockers90.2%NO
Mark Barron88.4%NO
Roger Saffold83.5%NO
James Laurinaitis76.0%NO
Sam Bradford50.8%NO
Chris Long48.8%YES
Jake Long38.8%YES
Kendall Langford35.2%YES
William Hayes35.2%YES
Eugene Sims17.0%YES
Scott Wells14.1%YES

ECV Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

ECV Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

ECV Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

ECV Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

ECV Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.