2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan

This week’s contract estimate is for our first 4-3 defensive tackle, Bennie Logan.  In 2013 the Philadelphia Eagles snapped up Logan in the 3rd round of the draft and he contributed immediately, logging 40% of the defensive snaps during his rookie season, playing in all 16 games.

Though Logan has been a mainstay on the Philly front four in each of his professional seasons, I feel he may have a hard time convincing his current employer to offer him the second contract he is probably expecting.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan »

2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams

Last week, we established a market for upcoming free agent Denver nose tackle Sylvester Williams despite some difficulty finding appropriate players to use as comparables for the 4th year player because there just aren’t a lot of 2nd contract interior linemen in the league with similar age/stats/production.

Today, we take a look at another 3-4 NT named Williams, this time Brandon of the Baltimore Ravens.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams »

2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams »

Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts

Given the recent comments made by Deadspin and Pro Football Talk as to the inadequacy of the current convention for reporting and discussing NFL contracts, I thought it would make sense to post the entirety of the research paper that Nick and I submitted to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  The paper can be downloaded as a PDF via the link below:

Expected Contract Value – A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts (Johnston & Barton)

Continue reading Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts »

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Defense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Defensive Lineman:

Ndamukong Suh
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$15,000100.0%$15,000$26,485,000
2016$15,00099.0%$14,850$23,485,000
2017$15,00094.8%$14,220$9,985,000
2018$17,000,00050.5%$8,585,000
2019$19,000,00034.0%$6,460,000
2020$18,360,00016.6%$3,047,760
Subtotal$18,136,830$59,955,000
Total$78,091,830
Jared Odrick
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$9,000,000
201696.6%$8,000,000
2017$8,500,00068.8%$5,848,000
2018$8,500,00045.7%$3,884,500
2019$8,500,00024.3%$2,065,500
Subtotal$11,798,000$17,000,000
Total$28,798,000
Dan Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.6%$149,400$7,850,000
2016$150,00093.5%$140,250$7,350,000
2017$4,500,00056.5%$2,542,500
2018$5,000,00028.1%$1,405,000
Subtotal$4,237,150$15,200,000
Total$19,437,150
Stephen Paea
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.1%$148,650$7,850,000
2016$3,450,00085.9%$2,963,550
2017$4,550,00055.5%$2,525,250
2018$5,000,00033.1%$1,655,000
Subtotal$7,292,450$7,850,000
Total$15,142,450
Kendall Langford
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,500,00092.8%$2,320,000$2,500,000
2016$4,000,00057.1%$2,284,000
2017$4,000,00032.7%$1,308,000
2018$4,200,00020.9%$877,800
Subtotal$6,789,800$2,500,000
Total$9,289,800
Corey Peters
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$200,00098.2%$196,400$4,000,000
2016$1,950,00073.5%$1,433,250
2017$2,850,00037.1%$1,057,350
Subtotal$2,687,000$4,000,000
Total$6,687,000
Tyson Alualu
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201595.2%$3,000,000
2016$1,750,00051.0%$892,500$1,250,000
Subtotal$892,500$4,250,000
Total$5,142,500
Tom Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$50,00094.1%$47,050$2,250,000
2016$2,350,00044.4%$1,043,400
2017$2,350,00016.0%$376,000
Subtotal$1,466,450$2,250,000
Total$3,716,450
Darnell Dockett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00064.9%$1,298,000$2,000,000
2016$3,500,00010.9%$381,500
Subtotal$1,679,500$2,000,000
Total$3,679,500
Cory Redding
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00069.3%$690,000$2,000,000
2016$3,000,00011.9%$357,000
Subtotal$1,047,000$2,000,000
Total$3,047,500

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.7%$149,550$11,625,000
2016$4,675,00097.0%$4,534,750$6,000,000
2017$7,550,00076.6%$5,783,300
2018$7,500,00048.3%$3,622,500
2019$7,500,00030.1%$2,257,500
Subtotal$16,347,600$17,625,000
Total$33,972,600
Pernell McPhee
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$175,00099.0%$173,250$8,500,000
2016$7,175,00080.7%$5,790,225
2017$7,325,00061.2%$4,482,900
2018$7,575,00039.7%$3,007,275
2019$8,000,00029.6%$2,368,000
Subtotal$15,821,650$8,500,000
Total$24,321,650
Brandon Graham
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.6%$9,000,000
201696.0%$4,000,000
2017$6,500,00047.8%$3,107,000
2018$6,500,00031.2%$2,028,000
Subtotal$5,135,000$13,000,000
Total$18,135,000
Brian Orakpo
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00098.0%$490,000$8,000,000
2016$7,000,00066.5%$4,655,000
2017$7,750,00035.7%$2,766,750
2018$7,750,00021.4%$1,658,500
Subtotal$9,570,250$8,000,000
Total$17,570,250
Brooks Reed
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$6,900,000
2016$2,500,00092.4%$2,310,000
2017$4,100,00067.7%$2,775,700
2018$4,500,00039.6%$1,782,000
2019$4,500,00026.5%$1,192,500
Subtotal$8,060,200$6,900,000
Total$14,960,200
Bruce Carter
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.4%$4,250,000
2016$4,250,00080.2%$3,408,500
2017$4,250,00056.5%$2,401,250
2018$4,250,00029.4%$1,249,500
Subtotal$7,059,250$4,250,000
Total$11,309,250
Trent Cole
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201588.3%$7,750,000
2016$6,250,00018.9%$1,181,250
Subtotal$1,181,250$7,750,000
Total$8,931,250
Jabaal Sheard
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.6%$966,000$5,000,000
2016$5,000,00054.0%$2,700,000
Subtotal$3,666,000$5,000,000
Total$8,666,000
Arthur Moats
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$850,00096.6%$821,100$1,900,000
2016$2,500,00065.4%$1,635,000
2017$2,250,00040.5%$911,250
Subtotal$3,367,350$1,900,000
Total$5,267,350

Linebackers:

David Harris
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.8%$7,500,000
201679.6%$7,500,000
2017$6,500,00017.3%$1,124,500
Subtotal$1,124,500$15,000,000
Total$16,124,500
JT Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00099.2%$24,800$3,975,000
2016$2,475,00076.9%$1,903,275$525,000
2017$3,000,00040.9%$1,227,000
Subtotal$3,155,075$4,500,000
Total$7,655,075
Justin Durant
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$3,250,00079.8%$2,593,500$1,250,000
2016$3,000,00051.4%$1,542,000
2017$3,300,00027.2%$897,600
Subtotal$5,033,100$1,250,000
Total$6,283,100
Malcolm Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00097.1%$242,750$3,750,000
2016$3,000,00054.7%$1,641,000
Subtotal$1,883,750$3,750,000
Total$5,633,750
Josh Mauga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00095.7%$957,000$2,250,000
2016$2,000,00068.0%$1,360,000
2017$3,000,00030.3%$909,000
Subtotal$3,226,000$2,250,000
Total$5,476,000
Jonathan Casillas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00098.2%$24,550$2,975,000
2016$2,500,00061.1%$1,527,500
2017$2,500,00033.6%$840,000
Subtotal$2,392,050$2,975,000
Total$5,367,050

Cornerbacks:

Darrelle Revis
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$16,000,000
201695.9%$17,000,000
2017$9,000,00064.8%$5,832,000$6,000,000
2018$11,000,00032.2%$3,542,000
2019$11,000,00015.3%$1,683,000
Subtotal$11,057,000$39,000,000
Total$50,057,000
Byron Maxwell
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.8%$13,500,000
201697.8%$8,500,000
2017$10,500,00063.6%$6,678,000
2018$10,000,00042.6%$4,260,000
2019$9,750,00025.5%$2,486,250
2020$10,750,00019.6%$2,107,000
Subtotal$15,531,250$22,000,000
Total$37,531,250
Kareem Jackson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.8%$249,500$14,000,000
2016$250,00096.5%$241,250$6,000,000
2017$6,750,00058.9%$3,975,750
2018$6,750,00037.2%$2,511,000
Subtotal$6,977,500$20,000,000
Total$26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,250,000
201694.0%$7,750,000
2017$9,000,00038.4%$3,456,000
2018$9,400,00021.3%$2,002,200
Subtotal$5,458,200$18,000,000
Total$23,458,200
Chris Culliver
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$8,000,000
201695.9%$8,000,000
2017$8,000,00047.9%$3,832,000
2018$8,000,00031.2%$2,496,000
Subtotal$6,328,000$16,000,000
Total$22,328,000
Buster Skrine
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$6,500,000
201696.6%$6,500,000
2017$6,000,00053.7%$3,222,000
2018$6,000,00037.5%$2,250,000
Subtotal$5,472,000$13,000,000
Total$18,472,000
Davon House
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$6,500,000
2016$2,500,00093.0%$2,325,000$3,500,000
2017$6,000,00063.1%$3,786,000
2018$6,000,00035.4%$2,124,000
Subtotal$8,235,000$10,000,000
Total$18,235,000
Cary Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.6%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00049.0%$2,450,000
2017$6,000,00021.7%$1,302,000
Subtotal$3,752,000$7,000,000
Total$10,752,000
Brandon Browner
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.3%$5,000,000
2016$2,250,00067.8%$1,525,500$2,750,000
2017$5,000,00018.3%$915,000
Subtotal$2,440,500$7,750,000
Total$10,190,500
Brice McCain
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00091.3%$913,000$2,000,000
2016$2,500,00041.2%$1,030,000
Subtotal$1,943,000$2,000,000
Total$3,943,000

Safeties:

Devin McCourty
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00099.9%$499,500$17,500,000
2016$500,00098.1%$490,500$4,500,000
2017$7,000,00074.3%$5,201,000
2018$8,000,00042.5%$3,400,000
2019$9,500,00022.5%$2,137,500
Subtotal$11,728,500$22,000,000
Total$33,728,500
Da’Norris Searcy
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.3%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00083.6%$4,180,000
2017$5,625,00057.3%$3,223,125
2018$6,125,00036.6%$2,241,750
Subtotal$9,644,875$7,000,000
Total$16,644,875
Nate Allen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.0%$99,000$6,900,000
2016$5,000,00078.3%$3,915,000
2017$6,000,00047.5%$2,850,000
2018$5,000,00034.4%$1,720,000
Subtotal$8,584,000$6,900,000
Total$15,484,000
Rahim Moore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00098.5%$985,000$4,000,000
2016$3,350,00079.3%$2,656,550
2017$3,650,00052.8%$1,927,200
Subtotal$5,568,750$4,000,000
Total$9,568,750
Antrel Rolle
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00092.2%$92,200$4,900,000
2016$3,000,00042.8%$1,284,000
2017$3,250,00014.4%$468,000
Subtotal$1,844,200$4,900,000
Total$6,744,200
Sergio Brown
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00094.5%$1,417,500$1,000,000
2016$2,250,00069.9%$1,572,750
2017$2,250,00035.7%$803,250
Subtotal$3,793,500$1,000,000
Total$4,793,500

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201589.2%$5,250,000
2016$3,375,00023.3%$786,375$1,000,000
2017$4,375,0005.8%$253,750
Subtotal$1,040,125$6,250,000
Total$7,290,125
Mark Sanchez
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201597.3%$4,500,000
2016$3,500,00045.5%$1,592,500$1,000,000
Subtotal$1,592,500$5,500,000
Total$7,092,500
Brian Hoyer
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00092.9%$464,500$4,750,000
2016$5,250,00029.4%$1,543,500
Subtotal$2,008,000$4,750,000
Total$6,758,000
Ryan Mallett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00092.0%$1,610,000$1,750,000
2016$3,500,00041.0%$1,435,000
Subtotal$3,045,000$1,750,000
Total$4,795,000
Shaun Hill
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$50,00076.1%$38,050$3,200,000
2016$3,250,0008.2%$266,500
Subtotal$304,550$3,200,000
Total$3,504,550
Blaine Gabbert
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00088.5%$1,327,500$500,000
2016$2,000,00055.6%$1,112,000
Subtotal$2,439,500$500,000
Total$2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$9,000,000
201698.2%$7,000,000
2017$6,000,00074.7%$4,482,000$2,000,000
2018$8,000,00036.0%$2,880,000
2019$8,000,00025.7%$2,056,000
Subtotal$9,418,000$18,000,000
Total$27,418,000
Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500
Ryan Matthews
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.4%$4,000,000
2016$2,000,00082.2%$1,644,000$1,000,000
2017$4,000,00035.9%$1,436,000
Subtotal$3,080,000$5,000,000
Total$8,080,000
Jerome Felton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.8%$98,800$3,600,000
2016$1,650,00079.3%$1,308,450
2017$1,850,00046.6%$862,100
2018$2,000,00024.8%$496,000
Subtotal$2,765,350$3,600,000
Total$6,365,350
Justin Forsett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201597.8%$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00052.3%$1,569,000
2017$3,000,00026.6%$798,000
Subtotal$2,367,000$3,000,000
Total$5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750
Dwayne Harris
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00099.9%$24,975$4,975,000
2016$875,00096.7%$846,125$2,125,000
2017$3,000,00070.5%$2,115,000
2018$3,250,00042.4%$1,378,000
2019$3,250,00028.1%$913,250
Subtotal$5,277,350$7,100,000
Total$12,377,350
Andre Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201592.9%$7,500,000
2016$2,500,00037.6%$940,000$2,500,000
2017$6,000,0009.2%$552,000
Subtotal$1,492,000$10,000,000
Total$11,492,000
Eddie Royal
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.1%$5,500,000
201686.9%$4,500,000
2017$5,000,00024.3%$1,215,000
Subtotal$1,215,000$10,000,000
Total$11,215,000
Brian Hartline
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201595.8%$3,000,000
2016$3,000,00037.9%
Subtotal$1,137,000$3,000,000
Total$4,137,000
Ted Ginn
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00084.5%$845,000$1,700,000
2016$1,500,00034.6%$519,000
Subtotal$1,364,000$1,700,000
Total$3,064,000
Jacoby Jones
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$900,00082.0%$738,000$1,600,000
2016$3,000,00020.7%$621,000
Subtotal$1,359,000$1,600,000
Total$2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Lance Kendricks
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.9%$5,500,000
2016$3,250,00086.5%$2,811,250$1,250,000
2017$4,250,00058.3%$2,477,750
2018$4,250,00030.9%$1,313,250
Subtotal$6,602,250$6,750,000
Total$13,352,250
Owen Daniels
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00086.0%$1,505,000$3,000,000
2016$3,500,00038.0%$1,330,000
2017$4,000,00014.7%$588,000
Subtotal$3,423,000$3,000,000
Total$6,423,000
Lee Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00097.6%$244,000$3,100,000
2016$2,750,00071.5%$1,966,250
2017$3,250,00034.1%$1,108,250
Subtotal$3,318,500$3,100,000
Total$6,418,500
Virgil Green
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.3%$3,200,000
2016$2,400,00066.2%$1,588,800
2017$2,800,00037.2%$1,041,600
Subtotal$2,630,400$3,200,000
Total$5,830,500
Ed Dickson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$850,00095.9%$815,150$2,000,000
2016$1,900,00065.7%$1,248,300
2017$2,050,00034.7%$711,350
Subtotal$2,774,800$2,000,000
Total$4,774,800
Niles Paul
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00098.3%$245,750$2,250,000
2016$1,500,00073.7%$1,105,500
2017$2,000,00043.3%$866,000
Subtotal$2,217,250$2,250,000
Total$4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000
Jeremy Parnell
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$8,000,000
201694.4%$6,500,000
2017$6,500,00056.5%$3,672,500
2018$5,000,00038.1%$1,905,000
2019$6,000,00016.9%$1,014,000
Subtotal$6,591,500$14,500,000
Total$21,091,500
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250
King Dunlap
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00098.5%$492,500$8,500,000
2016$5,000,00077.5%$3,875,000
2017$6,750,00039.6%$2,673,000
2018$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$8,584,750$8,500,000
Total$17,084,750
Doug Free
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.9%$6,000,000
2016$4,000,00048.4%$1,936,000
2017$5,000,00018.2%$910,000
Subtotal$2,846,000$6,000,000
Total$8,846,000
Joe Reitz
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,750,00088.9%$1,555,750$1,500,000
2016$2,250,00054.6%$1,228,500
2017$2,500,00020.9%$522,500
Subtotal$3,306,750$1,500,000
Total$4,806,750
Michael Oher
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00089.0%$1,112,500$2,500,000
2016$3,250,00034.6%$1,124,500
Subtotal$2,237,000$2,500,000
Total$4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$400,00098.8%$395,200$12,600,000
2016$7,700,00089.4%$6,883,800
2017$6,850,00077.9%$5,336,150
2018$8,350,00053.5%$4,467,250
2019$8,600,00030.0%$2,580,000
Subtotal$19,662,400$12,600,000
Total$32,262,400
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,000,000
201697.2%$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Clint Boling
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00098.2%$2,062,200$5,000,000
2016$4,250,00084.9%$3,608,250
2017$4,450,00066.2%$2,945,900
2018$4,950,00041.9%$2,074,050
2019$5,250,00030.4%$1,596,000
Subtotal$12,286,400$5,000,000
Total$17,286,400
James Carpenter
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.1%$5,000,000
2016$4,700,00077.8%$3,656,600
2017$4,700,00053.5%$2,514,500
2018$4,700,00037.1%$1,743,700
Subtotal$7,914,800$5,000,000
Total$12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$4,000,000
2016$1,200,00091.2%$1,094,400$1,000,000
2017$2,800,00051.4%$1,439,200
2018$3,000,00026.7%$801,000
2019$3,000,00017.4%$522,000
Subtotal$3,856,600$5,000,000
Total$8,856,600
Matt Prater
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00079.5%$993,750$750,000
2016$2,500,00035.2%$880,000
2017$3,700,00012.7%$469,900
Subtotal$2,343,650$750,000
Total$3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts 3/12

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Ndamukong Suh
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$15,000100.0%$15,000$26,485,000
2016$15,00099.0%$14,850$23,485,000
2017$15,00094.8%$14,220$9,985,000
2018$17,000,00050.5%$8,585,000
2019$19,000,00034.0%$6,460,000
2020$18,360,00016.6%$3,047,760
Subtotal$18,136,830$59,955,000
Total$78,091,830

Pass Catchers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500

Offensive Lineman:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000 (70.4%)
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,000,000
201697.2%$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.7%$149,550$11,625,000
2016$4,675,00097.0%$4,534,750$6,000,000
2017$7,550,00076.6%$5,783,300
2018$7,500,00048.3%$3,622,500
2019$7,500,00030.1%$2,257,500
Subtotal$16,347,600$17,625,000
Total$33,972,600
Brandon Graham
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.6%$9,000,000
201696.0%$4,000,000
2017$6,500,00047.8%$3,107,000
2018$6,500,00031.2%$2,028,000
Subtotal$5,135,000$13,000,000
Total$18,135,000

Defensive Backs:

Darrelle Revis
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$16,000,000
201695.9%$17,000,000
2017$9,000,00064.8%$5,832,000$6,000,000
2018$11,000,00032.2%$3,542,000
2019$11,000,00015.3%$1,683,000
Subtotal$11,057,000$39,000,000
Total$50,057,000
Devin McCourty
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00099.9%$499,500$17,500,000
2016$500,00098.1%$490,500$4,500,000
2017$7,000,00074.3%$5,201,000
2018$8,000,00042.5%$3,400,000
2019$9,500,00022.5%$2,137,500
Subtotal$11,728,500$22,000,000
Total$33,728,500
Kareem Jackson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.8%$249,500$14,000,000
2016$250,00096.5%$241,250$6,000,000
2017$6,750,00058.9%$3,975,750
2018$6,750,00037.2%$2,511,000
Subtotal$6,977,500$20,000,000
Total$26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,250,000
201694.0%$7,750,000
2017$9,000,00038.4%$3,456,000
2018$9,400,00021.3%$2,002,200
Subtotal$5,458,200$18,000,000
Total$23,458,200
Buster Skrine
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$6,500,000
201696.6%$6,500,000
2017$6,000,00053.7%$3,222,000
2018$6,000,00037.5%$2,250,000
Subtotal$5,472,000$13,000,000
Total$18,472,000
Cary Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.6%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00049.0%$2,450,000
2017$6,000,00021.7%$1,302,000
Subtotal$3,752,000$7,000,000
Total$10,752,000

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.