Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries

The NFL can be a funny place. One minute everyone sings your praises and the next everyone questions your future with the team. It happens on all levels from GM to coach to player. Amazingly I saw that talk filter to Rob Gronkowski who has gone through another season of injuries the latest of which landed him on IR for the remainder of the season.  It’s quite the turnaround from last year where many of those same people were saying he deserved a raise for his level of play. I know it’s easy to get caught up in the “Patriot way” of doing business which has seen superstars traded or allowed to walk in free agency without a second thought, but I don’t see that as the case here. Continue reading Looking at Rob Gronkowski’s Contract and Injuries »

Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future

With Darrelle Revis’ struggles becoming more pronounced by the week, his contract for next year has become a hot topic of discussion. Revis was signed in 2015 to a five year, $70 million contract with nearly $40 million in guarantees to help correct what many felt was a mistake made by the Jets in 2013.  It didn’t take long for most to notice in 2015 that this version of Revis was a far cry from the 2009/10 version that was the best defender in the NFL, but in 2016 he looks like a shell of a player. The Jets have not even finished paying the guaranteed portion of the contract but they are clearly going to have to consider moving on next year. It’s possible that this will mark the end of Revis’ career, at least as a cornerback, and should certainly mark the end of his run as the highest paid player at his position. So what are the options for Revis and the Jets?  Continue reading Thoughts on Revis’ Contract and Future »

Revisiting The Questionable QB Decisions of 2016

On Sunday I posed the question on Twitter as to what was the worst big money QB move of the offseason. I got a lot of responses and questions so I thought I would flesh that out as a post and give my opinions for what I thought were questionable contract decisions this past offseason with quarterbacks. Three to me stand out as bad and the last two are more food for thought as to approaching team building and the difficult decisions teams make. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments on these or any other deals.

Texans Sign Brock Osweiler
Cost: $37 million in guarantees

  Continue reading Revisiting The Questionable QB Decisions of 2016 »

The Best and Worst Offenses in 2016

Had some good feedback on the best and worst value team’s article I wrote last week and a request for breaking things down by offensive and defensive spending. That sounded like a good idea to me so I’ll do offense here and then next week make the turn to defense. The metric’s we’ll use here to compare the team’s performance to spending will be Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA for offense and my scoring efficiency metric, which is basically the percentage a team scores above or below their specific opponent’s adjusted  average points allowed. I’ll include the salary of kickers and long snappers in salary matrix, even though they are not going to contribute to the DVOA of the team’s offense. The following plot shows the teams spending on offense vs their performance with the size of the bubble indicating the ratio of money spent on offense vs defense. Continue reading The Best and Worst Offenses in 2016 »

The Worst Signings of 2016

I always get a number of questions about contracts signed and which ones were good or bad, so I figured why not make a list of my picks for the worst signings of the year. Some of it is a little Monday morning quarterbacking obviously and by next year some of these deals may look pretty decent, but here are my picks for the signings that teams may wish they could go back in time and get a redo.  Continue reading The Worst Signings of 2016 »

Playing GM of the Raiders (Part 3)

In part 1 of the series I looked at contract tendencies with the Raiders and in part 2 I focused on contract extensions, here we put it all together and see what mess I created.  I ran all the numbers through the OTC Oakland Raiders calculator to see where the Raiders would stand with contracts for these 4 players. The assumptions made are that the Raiders will carry over about $9 million in cap space this year and that the cap will continue to rise by a similar percentage as it has the last few years until the CBA expires at which point it remains flat. No carry over is factored in to future years nor am I cutting any players from the roster. Also I’m putting in an $18 million contract placeholder for Amari Cooper starting in 2019 even though I didn’t really discuss contract terms in the prior part.

Here is the breakdown for the next few years: Continue reading Playing GM of the Raiders (Part 3) »

Playing GM of the Raiders (Part 2)

In part 1 of our look at the Raiders I examined some of the contract strategies of Oakland and set forth a few possible parameters for contract extensions. In part 2 I will make some rough estimates for salaries for the Raiders upcoming free agentsand when the time is right to strike. I’ll order the bigger names down by when I think the decision should be made on the player and try to give an estimate of cap charges that could be used in the future.

Derek Carr

Free Agent Year: 2018
Recommended Extension: 2017 League Year
Continue reading Playing GM of the Raiders (Part 2) »