Free agency in the NFL is always filled with fool’s gold.  Sometimes a team strikes real gold, but It’s well established that many high profile free agent signings don’t live up to the billing of their contract.  Some of these signings also have long lasting effects via the compensatory draft pick system.  As the league […]

Josh Norman signed a five-year contract with Washington for a reported stated value of $75 million, of which $36.5 million is guaranteed (using any common sense definition of the word “guarantee”).  The Expected Contract Value of the deal is $54,848,581 (73% of the stated value):

The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0.  Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value.  Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not […]

Due to the fact that rosters will remain mostly static between now and the preseason, I thought that this would be a good time to provide an update as to the status of the players for whom we provided a 2015 expected outcome earlier in the offseason. As a reminder, we ran the Expected Contract […]

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC East As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the […]