2018 Compensatory Picks Primer

Now that the league’s “legal tampering” period is open (and with it may come initial news of free agent contracts to be signed), it’s time to prepare followers of the compensatory pick system of what to expect for 2018.  Below the fold you can find a list of aspects to watch out for as free […]

2018 Compensatory Pick Potential

With the franchise and transition tag deadline having passed (and thus taking some of the highest profile free agents off the market), it’s time to take a look at what each team has to work with with regard to gaining compensatory picks for the 2018 NFL Draft.  Teams will have a higher potential to gain […]

2016 Cap Analytics: Kansas City Chiefs

Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as […]

Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Linebackers

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers Defensive Lineman Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year David Harris $21,500,000 $16,124,500 75% $5,374,833 Dan Skuta $20,500,000 $11,820,800 58% $2,364,160 Curtis Lofton $18,000,000 $11,291,450 63% $3,763,817 JT Thomas $10,000,000 $7,655,075 77% $2,551,692 Justin Durant $10,800,000 $6,283,100 58% $2,094,367 Malcolm Smith […]

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Defense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment. Defensive Lineman: Ndamukong Suh Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment 2015 $15,000 […]